Bellwether. PAPER

Bellwether 2

Bankroll
$5,794.06
+$794.06 all-time
P&L today
+$0.00
41W / 26L all-time
AI spend today
$0.00
0 model calls
Open positions
7
$525.00 at risk · $404.69 to win
Books
consensus_a active 25% 6 open +$678.71 CLV +0.051
consensus_b active 25% 1 open +$333.63 CLV +0.138
slate active 20% 0 open +$0.00 CLV -
fat_pitch active 15% 0 open +$0.00 CLV -
weather paused 15% 0 open -$218.28 CLV -0.112
Open positions - next to resolve (7)
CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?
NO @ 0.58 consensus_a kalshi
ResolvesTue Jul 14 5:29am PT
OpenedTue Jun 30 1:26pm PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$54.31
Now0.57
Unrealized-$1.29
CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?
NO @ 0.57 consensus_a kalshi
ResolvesTue Jul 14 5:29am PT
OpenedTue Jun 30 1:26pm PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$56.58
Now0.54
Unrealized-$3.95
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?
NO @ 0.51 consensus_a kalshi
ResolvesTue Jul 14 5:29am PT
OpenedSun Jul 5 12:19am PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$72.06
Now0.47
Unrealized-$5.88
CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?
NO @ 0.63 consensus_b kalshi
ResolvesTue Jul 14 5:29am PT
OpenedSun Jul 12 11:51pm PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$44.05
Now0.73
Unrealized+$11.90
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?
bracket 26JUL16 · KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-13-26JUL16
YES @ 0.51 consensus_a kalshi
ResolvesThu Jul 16 8:59pm PT
OpenedSat Jul 11 7:40pm PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$72.06
Now0.56
Unrealized+$7.35
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?
at least 2 2026 FIFA World Cup matches · KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-2
NO @ 0.50 consensus_a kalshi
ResolvesMon Jul 20 8:59pm PT
OpenedSat Jun 13 1:01am PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$75.00
Now0.99
Unrealized+$73.50
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?
at least 3 2026 FIFA World Cup matches · KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-3
NO @ 0.71 consensus_a kalshi
ResolvesMon Jul 20 8:59pm PT
OpenedSat Jun 13 2:01am PT
Cost (max loss)$75.00
To win$30.63
Now1.00
Unrealized+$30.63
Recently closed (20)
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?
between 40 · KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.3
NO @ 0.61 consensus_b no
ClosedFri Jul 10 8:54am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$47.95
CLV+0.390
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?
between 40 · KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10-40.6
NO @ 0.58 consensus_a no
ClosedFri Jul 10 8:54am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$54.31
CLV+0.400
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026?
bracket 26JUL10 · KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10
YES @ 0.50 consensus_a yes
ClosedThu Jul 9 12:02pm PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$75.00
CLV+0.490
Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 4 between Jun 29, 2026 and Jul 5, 2026?
between Jun 29 · KXTRUMPPHOTO-26JUL05-4
NO @ 0.60 consensus_a no
ClosedMon Jul 6 7:53am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$50.00
CLV+0.400
Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026?
between 120 and 139 · KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL04-B129
NO @ 0.50 consensus_a no
ClosedSun Jul 5 7:53am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$75.00
CLV+0.500
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?
between 40 · KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL03-40.6
NO @ 0.45 consensus_a no
ClosedFri Jul 3 8:42am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$91.67
CLV+0.550
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?
NO @ 0.60 consensus_a no
ClosedThu Jul 2 6:41am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$50.00
CLV+0.010
Will above 100000 jobs be added in June 2026?
bracket T100000 · KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T100000
YES @ 0.50 consensus_a no
ClosedThu Jul 2 6:41am PT
Cost$75.00
Result-$75.00
CLV+0.150
Will above 125000 jobs be added in June 2026?
bracket T125000 · KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T125000
YES @ 0.43 consensus_b no
ClosedThu Jul 2 6:41am PT
Cost$75.00
Result-$75.00
CLV+0.060
Rain in Austin in Jun 2026?
bracket 6 · KXRAINAUSM-26JUN-6
NO @ 0.50 consensus_a no
ClosedWed Jul 1 9:49am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$75.00
CLV+0.500
Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet before Jul 1, 2026?
bracket MBS · KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-MBS
YES @ 0.41 consensus_a no
ClosedWed Jul 1 8:49am PT
Cost$75.00
Result-$75.00
CLV-0.350
Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?
bracket JUL26 · KXHFHOUSING-27-JUL26
NO @ 0.57 consensus_a no
ClosedWed Jul 1 7:45am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$56.58
CLV+0.430
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 1, 2026?
bracket 26JUL01 · KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
NO @ 0.63 consensus_b no
ClosedWed Jul 1 7:45am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$44.05
CLV+0.370
Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $1.30 trillion?
bracket T1300 · KXMUSKNW-26JUN30-T1300
NO @ 0.53 consensus_a no
ClosedTue Jun 30 5:09pm PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$66.51
CLV+0.470
Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $1.20 trillion?
bracket T1200 · KXMUSKNW-26JUN30-T1200
NO @ 0.42 consensus_b no
ClosedTue Jun 30 5:09pm PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$103.57
CLV+0.580
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7630 by Jun 30, 2026?
bracket 7630 · KXINXMAXMM-30JUN2026-7630
NO @ 0.50 consensus_a no
ClosedTue Jun 30 4:06pm PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$75.00
CLV+0.500
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7640 by Jun 30, 2026?
bracket 7640 · KXINXMAXMM-30JUN2026-7640
NO @ 0.50 consensus_b no
ClosedTue Jun 30 4:06pm PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$75.00
CLV+0.500
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Jun 27, 2026?
bracket JUN27 · KXCLAYTONCONF-26JUN11-JUN27
NO @ 0.28 consensus_a no
ClosedSat Jun 27 8:35am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$192.86
CLV+0.720
Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?
between 40 · KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN26-40.3
NO @ 0.58 consensus_a no
ClosedFri Jun 26 8:36am PT
Cost$75.00
Result+$54.31
CLV+0.420
Will the S&P 500 be above 7349.9999 on Jun 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
NO @ 0.40 consensus_b yes
ClosedThu Jun 25 5:05pm PT
Cost$75.00
Result-$75.00
CLV-0.100