Patterns
detection cycle 30 min - phase 1B-10 (one detector live)Active patterns
1
detector definitions
Total observations
24,502
across all patterns
Last 24h
0
fresh detections
Top score 24h
-
deviation from 1.0
Pattern definitions
| Name | Category | Status | Observations | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mutex_set_sum_violation | cross-market | active | 24,502 | Mutually-exclusive Polymarket set whose YES prices sum != 1.0 |
Recent observations
For sum-violation: score is |sum_yes - 1.0|. Direction tells which way to lean.| When (UTC) | Pattern | Set / Market | Markets | Sum YES | Score | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Jun 12 10:43pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
los-angeles-mayoral-election-117
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
|
11 | 0.945 | +0.055 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:43pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
presidential-election-winner-2028
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
|
37 | 0.934 | +0.066 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
ky-04-republican-primary-winner
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
|
4 | 0.684 | +0.316 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
largest-company-end-of-may
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market...
|
12 | 2.002 | +1.002 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-on
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 22?
|
19 | 0.001 | +1.000 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
|
13 | 1.269 | +0.269 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
|
3 | 0.890 | +0.110 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
largest-company-end-of-december-2026
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by ...
|
8 | 0.949 | +0.051 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
who-will-petr-yan-fight-next-before-2027
Will Petr Yan fight Alexander Volkanovski next?
|
14 | 1.080 | +0.080 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-happen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
|
19 | 2.103 | +1.103 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at m...
|
7 | 0.949 | +0.051 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
english-premier-league-3rd-place
Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Pr...
|
20 | 0.915 | +0.086 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
3rd-largest-company-end-of-april
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by ...
|
7 | 0.004 | +0.997 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 20...
|
17 | 0.155 | +0.845 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
2026-gyeonggi-province-gubernatorial-election-winner
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernator...
|
17 | 1.073 | +0.073 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
next-prime-minister-of-sweden
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
|
10 | 0.937 | +0.064 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
eurovision-2026-televote-winner
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
|
35 | 1.073 | +0.072 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
|
16 | 0.926 | +0.074 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
bachelorette-season-22-winner
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?
|
23 | 0.780 | +0.220 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
|
20 | 0.443 | +0.557 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
mls-cup-winner-2026
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?
|
30 | 0.928 | +0.072 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
fed-decision-in-july
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the ...
|
8 | 1.966 | +0.966 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
colombia-presidential-election
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential ...
|
20 | 1.326 | +0.326 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
eurovision-winner-2026
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?
|
31 | 0.593 | +0.407 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
texas-republican-senate-primary-winner
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
|
3 | 0.003 | +0.998 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
who-will-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
|
34 | 0.001 | +0.999 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
next-prime-minister-of-hungary
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
|
12 | 0.002 | +0.998 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 10:12pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
republican-presidential-nominee-2028
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi...
|
36 | 1.462 | +0.462 | overpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 9:41pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
los-angeles-mayoral-election-117
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
|
11 | 0.945 | +0.055 | underpriced |
| Fri Jun 12 9:41pm | mutex_set_sum_violation |
presidential-election-winner-2028
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
|
37 | 0.933 | +0.067 | underpriced |