Edge Tracker
predicted edge at decision vs current / realized edgeOpen positions
1
$114 notional
Closed trades
50
22W / 28L
Realized PnL
+$1,351.88
across all closes
Predicted PnL
+$375.84
realized above predicted by $976.03
Open positions: predicted edge vs current drift
Predicted edge = Boss probability minus market price at consult. Drift = current market price minus fill price (positive = with us).| Opened | Strategy | Market | Side | Fill | Boss p | Predicted edge | Current | Drift | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed May 13 5:06pm | slate |
polymarket Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida ... |
no | 0.1250 | 0.080 | -0.795 | 0.8750 | +0.000 | $114.17 |
Closed trades: predicted vs realized
Implied predicted PnL = predicted_edge * size. Realized = actual PnL booked at settlement.| Closed | Strategy | Market | Side | Fill | Outcome | Predicted edge | Predicted PnL | Realized PnL | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Jul 12 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presi... |
no | 0.7620 | no | - | - | +$10.93 | - |
| Sun Jul 12 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? |
no | 0.7100 | no | - | - | +$14.30 | - |
| Sun Jul 5 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? |
yes | 0.2319 | no | - | - | $-35.00 | - |
| Sun Jul 5 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? |
no | 0.7800 | no | - | - | +$9.87 | - |
| Sun Jul 5 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? |
no | 0.9200 | no | - | - | +$2.17 | - |
| Sun Jul 5 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral elect... |
no | 0.7700 | no | - | - | +$10.45 | - |
| Sun Jun 28 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Starmer out by December 31, 2026? |
no | 0.3300 | yes | - | - | $-25.00 | - |
| Sun Jun 28 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? |
no | 0.2700 | yes | - | - | $-50.00 | - |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Kid Rock attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
no | 0.5000 | yes | -0.120 | $-18.87 | $-78.61 | $-59.74 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the Jun... |
no | 0.1000 | yes | -0.020 | $-15.73 | $-78.64 | $-62.91 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 autho... |
yes | 0.3900 | no | +0.030 | +$5.91 | $-76.77 | $-82.68 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before J... |
yes | 0.3900 | yes | +0.030 | +$6.05 | +$122.99 | +$116.95 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before J... |
yes | 0.2700 | yes | +0.080 | +$34.98 | +$319.21 | +$284.23 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? |
yes | 0.1000 | no | +0.060 | +$47.23 | $-78.71 | $-125.93 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any Knicks playoff game? |
yes | 0.2200 | no | +0.015 | +$5.43 | $-79.71 | $-85.14 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any Knicks playoff game? |
no | 0.8000 | no | -0.080 | $-5.92 | +$14.80 | +$20.72 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Elon Musk attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
no | 0.5400 | no | -0.080 | $-11.41 | +$65.63 | +$77.04 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Elon Musk attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
yes | 0.3500 | no | +0.035 | +$5.95 | $-59.54 | $-65.50 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.400M? |
no | 0.1600 | no | -0.010 | $-3.72 | +$312.59 | +$316.32 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Jake Paul attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
yes | 0.2100 | no | +0.020 | +$5.67 | $-59.50 | $-65.17 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 autho... |
yes | 0.1500 | no | +0.050 | +$19.85 | $-59.54 | $-79.39 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissent... |
no | 0.2400 | yes | -0.060 | $-14.89 | $-59.54 | $-44.66 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.450M? |
yes | 0.0600 | no | +0.020 | +$19.85 | $-59.54 | $-79.39 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.375M? |
no | 0.0900 | no | -0.025 | $-16.54 | +$602.03 | +$618.57 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? |
no | 0.4188 | no | - | - | +$48.57 | - |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? |
yes | 0.4100 | yes | - | - | +$50.37 | - |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyahu before J... |
yes | 0.2500 | yes | +0.300 | +$107.18 | +$267.94 | +$160.76 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? |
no | 0.3400 | yes | -0.020 | $-3.50 | $-59.54 | $-56.04 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Joe Rogan attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
no | 0.1300 | yes | -0.045 | $-23.16 | $-66.90 | $-43.74 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Conor McGregor attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in p... |
no | 0.2300 | no | -0.080 | $-23.27 | +$223.98 | +$247.25 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Barron Trump attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in per... |
no | 0.1900 | yes | -0.610 | $-322.20 | $-100.36 | +$221.84 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? |
no | 0.4924 | yes | - | - | $-35.00 | - |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | whale_copy |
polymarket US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? |
yes | 0.4900 | yes | - | - | +$36.43 | - |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Vince McMahon attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in pe... |
no | 0.7700 | no | -0.050 | $-4.34 | +$19.98 | +$24.33 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Adin Ross attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
yes | 0.2500 | no | +0.020 | +$6.38 | $-79.71 | $-86.09 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will Adin Ross attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person? |
no | 0.3700 | no | -0.280 | $-75.95 | +$170.88 | +$246.82 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will John F. Kennedy be the Republican nominee for Lt. Go... |
no | 0.5100 | no | -0.460 | $-255.52 | +$272.19 | +$527.71 |
| Sun Jun 21 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will John F. Kennedy be the Republican nominee for Lt. Go... |
no | 0.3900 | no | -0.600 | $-422.84 | +$429.89 | +$852.73 |
| Sun Jun 14 2:00am | consensus |
kalshi Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 autho... |
yes | 0.6900 | no | +0.040 | +$3.45 | $-59.54 | $-62.99 |
| Fri Jun 12 2:33pm | whale_copy |
polymarket US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? |
yes | 0.5100 | yes | - | - | $-8.15 | - |
| Fri Jun 12 12:26pm | consensus |
kalshi Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and ... |
no | 0.5400 | no | -0.410 | $-58.47 | +$65.60 | +$124.06 |
| Fri Jun 12 12:26pm | consensus |
kalshi Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be... |
yes | 0.1500 | no | +0.670 | +$1,406.26 | $-314.83 | $-1,721.10 |
| Fri Jun 12 9:22am | consensus |
kalshi Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 autho... |
yes | 0.2700 | no | +0.040 | +$8.82 | $-59.54 | $-68.36 |
| Fri Jun 12 3:17am | consensus |
kalshi How many initial jobless claims will there be the week en... |
yes | 0.4700 | yes | +0.050 | +$8.13 | +$86.18 | +$78.05 |
| Thu Jun 11 12:57pm | whale_copy |
polymarket Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? |
yes | 0.2999 | no | - | - | $-6.99 | - |
| Thu Jun 11 12:00pm | consensus |
kalshi Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 autho... |
yes | 0.1600 | no | +0.040 | +$12.05 | $-48.21 | $-60.26 |
| Thu Jun 11 8:56am | consensus |
kalshi Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the June E... |
no | 0.0500 | yes | -0.050 | $-48.21 | $-48.21 | $0.00 |
| Thu Jun 11 7:30am | whale_copy |
polymarket US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? |
yes | 0.3700 | yes | - | - | $-20.81 | - |
| Wed Jun 10 1:54pm | whale_copy |
polymarket US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? |
yes | 0.3200 | ? | - | - | $-18.59 | - |
| Wed Jun 10 8:38am | consensus |
kalshi Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the... |
no | 0.5600 | yes | -0.020 | $-2.81 | $-78.61 | $-75.80 |
Per-strategy realization
| Strategy | Closed | Wins | Win % | Predicted PnL | Realized PnL | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| whale_copy | 16 | 8 | 50.0% | +$0.00 | $-16.44 | $-16.44 |
| consensus | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | +$375.84 | +$1,368.32 | +$992.48 |