Bellwether. PAPER

Models

17,378 consultations - 58,836 predictions - $60.4532 spent

Per-model summary & calibration

Brier: lower is better (0.25 = coin flip baseline) · Calib err: |predicted - actual|, lower is better
Model Calls Total $ Avg ms Avg prob Avg conf Scored Brier Accuracy Calib err
claude consultant 17,336 $24.1700 2,974 0.332 0.555 4,395 0.198 73.1% 0.349
gemini consultant 17,373 $2.3285 1,419 0.281 0.779 4,404 0.176 78.1% 0.308
chatgpt consultant 17,378 $1.9871 2,914 0.315 0.678 4,404 0.166 78.4% 0.340
claude boss 852 $30.0839 5,067 0.241 0.608 83 0.222 67.1% 0.337
gemini boss 5,897 $1.8838 1,666 0.320 0.751 2,644 0.212 70.5% 0.350

Recent decisions

When Platform Market Mkt C G GPT Boss Spread Conv
Fri Jun 12 10:53pm kalshi How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donal... 0.14 0.12 0.05 0.20 0.08 0.15 55
Fri Jun 12 10:53pm kalshi How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donal... 0.85 0.72 0.05 0.75 0.73 0.70 55
Fri Jun 12 10:53pm kalshi How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donal... 0.59 0.42 0.05 0.65 0.08 0.60 75
Fri Jun 12 10:14pm kalshi Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting? 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.05 - 0.07 -
Fri Jun 12 10:14pm kalshi Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.... 0.09 0.12 0.09 0.10 - 0.03 -
Fri Jun 12 10:14pm kalshi Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the June B... 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 - 0.03 -
Fri Jun 12 10:14pm kalshi How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.06 - 0.03 -
Fri Jun 12 10:14pm kalshi How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.03 - 0.05 -
Fri Jun 12 10:14pm kalshi Will Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Trut... 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.25 - 0.07 -
Fri Jun 12 10:13pm kalshi Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Trut... 0.41 0.38 0.41 0.25 0.35 0.16 55
Fri Jun 12 10:13pm kalshi Will Sean Strickland attend any UFC Freedom 250... 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.12 - 0.01 -
Fri Jun 12 10:13pm kalshi Will Conor McGregor attend any UFC Freedom 250 ... 0.27 0.32 0.27 0.25 - 0.07 -
Fri Jun 12 10:13pm kalshi How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0.64 0.62 0.64 0.64 - 0.02 -
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will the Central Bank of Brazil Cut 25bps at th... 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.67 - 0.01 -
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will the Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bps at ... 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.15 - 0.04 -
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will Mike Tyson attend any UFC Freedom 250 even... 0.43 0.38 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.23 55
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be a... 0.97 0.72 0.97 0.85 0.75 0.25 30
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyah... 0.10 0.72 0.15 0.25 0.45 0.57 75
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will US housing starts for May 2026 be above 1.... 0.51 0.52 0.51 0.55 - 0.04 -
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will Jake Paul attend any UFC Freedom 250 event... 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.25 0.30 0.10 60
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will Trump publicly criticize Benjamin Netanyah... 0.03 0.45 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.40 60
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the June 2... 0.97 0.72 0.97 0.97 - 0.25 -
Fri Jun 12 9:13pm kalshi Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Trut... 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.15 - 0.03 -
Fri Jun 12 8:13pm kalshi Will Barron Trump attend any UFC Freedom 250 ev... 0.68 0.28 0.68 0.50 0.40 0.40 55
Fri Jun 12 8:12pm kalshi China unemployment rate in May 2026? 0.96 0.25 0.96 0.95 - 0.71 -
C=Claude consultant, G=Gemini consultant, GPT=ChatGPT consultant, Boss=Claude synthesis. Conv=conviction (0-100). <70 skip, 70-85 medium, 85-95 high, 95+ fat pitch.