Decision #118

Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026?

consensus_run trade #2: CLOSED $-75.00

Resolution criteria If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consultant 1 correctly identifies that historical Strait of Hormuz traffic vastly exceeds 50 transits/week (100-150+), making this a very low bar that would require major disruption to miss. The market price of 0.130 appears significantly mispriced relative to baseline shipping activity. Consultants 2 and 3 seem confused about the threshold or underweighting historical data. The 50-transit threshold is actually easy to clear in a normal week, suggesting YES should trade much higher. Medium conviction on the edge (final probability 0.85 vs market 0.13) with decent liquidity ($20k volume) justifies a small position.

Key disagreement Consultant 1 vs. Consultants 2-3: Disagreement centers on whether 50 transits/week is a high or low threshold. C1 correctly notes this is well below historical norms (100-150+), while C2-C3 appear to treat it as a high bar. C1's logic is sound—this is a YES-favoring market inefficiency rather than a genuine toss-up. C2-C3's lower probabilities lack specific reasoning about why April 2026 would see a major disruption or why historical traffic patterns would reverse.